Analytics: seasonal 'typical week' history curve on day and week views

Port the seasonal.py demo algorithm to JS (analytics/seasonal.js): the
smoothed 5-minute history is folded onto a weekly grid with exponential
age decay (7-day half-life for the time-of-day pattern, 42 days for
per-weekday deviations, shrunk by effective weeks of data), capped at
180 days of history where the weights become negligible.

Week view: the fading past-week overlays are replaced by the full
Monday-first 'Typical week' estimate. Day view gains the same estimate
cut to the rolling 24h window as a smooth muted 'Typical <weekday>'
curve behind the bars. Longer ranges are unchanged.
This commit is contained in:
2026-09-18 13:45:51 +00:00
parent 626dc1df8f
commit 2d221f6204
6 changed files with 217 additions and 89 deletions
+19 -7
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@@ -362,13 +362,25 @@ Axes always start at 0 and end at a multiple of a 1-2-5 major step (max 5
labeled intervals, minor lines at fifths when integral; the minimum y-axis
range is 10 so tiny values such as a single visit are not stretched to a
fractional scale).
The week range is aligned to Monday 00:00 UTC and overlays up to 8 previous
weeks in the muted color at decreasing opacity (the current week keeps the
accent color and is
truncated at the current bucket, never drawing fake zeroes for the future);
a compact legend inside the top right of the visits chart marks the current
ISO week in accent and the overlaid past weeks as "Week M" or "Week MN" on
a muted specimen. Its x labels are weekday names centered at midday UTC, without
The week range is aligned to Monday 00:00 UTC (the current week keeps the
accent color and is truncated at the current bucket, never drawing fake
zeroes for the future). Both the week and day views overlay a **"typical"
history curve** in the muted color (`analytics/seasonal.js`, a port of
`seasonal.py`): the whole recorded history is densified to 5-minute bins,
smoothed with the same Gaussian as the week view, then folded onto a weekly
grid with exponential decay over age — a 7-day half-life for the average
time-of-day pattern and a 42-day half-life for per-weekday deviations from
it, the deviation shrunk by the effective number of weeks behind each bin
(`n_eff / (n_eff + 3)`) so the estimate falls back to the common daily
pattern when history is short. History is capped at the most recent 180
days, beyond which even the slow kernel's weight is negligible (~5%). The
week view draws the full Monday-first
estimate as "Typical week" (future included); the day view cuts the rolling
24-hour window's bins from the same estimate and labels them by the weekday
("Typical Saturday"). A compact legend inside the top right of the visits
chart marks the current data in accent (ISO week label, or a bar specimen
for "Last 24 hours") and the typical curve on a muted specimen. The week
view's x labels are weekday names centered at midday UTC, without
vertical grid
lines (day boundaries would be misleading in the viewer's timezone). The
month view labels days the same lineless way — day numbers at noon UTC,